Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You will encounter a highly variable snowpack from one slope to the next, so carefully evaluate your terrain selection.  Wind-drifted terrain features are the most likely place to trigger a large slab avalanche.  Some sheltered areas pose a threat, too, where you encounter slabs above weak snow.  You can reduce your avalanche risk by avoiding drifted slopes and favoring sheltered areas.  In sheltered areas, loose avalanche problems have developed where the snowpack is shallow and weak.  Wind-protected, southerly slopes offer the least problematic snowpack.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Slabs up to several feet thick can be triggered where they formed over well-developed facets and collapsible crusts on west, north, and east aspects. Additionally, heavily wind-loaded slabs can be triggered above buried crusts on high-elevation, southerly aspects.  Slab behavior is challenging with variable and deceptive feedback, remote triggering potential, and wide propagation across terrain features.  Terrain with recent wind-loading appears to be the most problematic. You can reliably avoid the problem on slope angles less than 30 degrees without steeper slopes above you, and most mid to low-elevation southerly aspects lack the problem.  

    This persistent slab in the Anthracites appears to be triggered by a rider on 1/18/2025. Note how the slab released on the lee side of a tree fence and convex roller that had been previously cross-loaded.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    Periods of blowing snow have been observed for several days. The wind direction has shifted between north and west.  There isn't a large volume of snow available for transport, so slab formation is expected to be mostly small.  Observers have reported hard, smooth slabs in leeward features; Wind Slabs can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas.  Winds mixed into lower elevation bands near the valley bottom, so you could encounter an isolated slab below treeline in open terrain.

    This wind slab was intentionally triggered by a ski cut in the Irwin Area on Tuesday, 1/21.

Avalanche Discussion

Wind-drifted areas present the most problematic snowpack and pose the most risk to you.  Recently, several avalanches have been triggered on wind-loaded features (Wolverine Basin, Irwin, Anthracite Range).  Some avalanches broke in recently drifted snow (Wind Slabs), while the slide in the Anthracite Range broke deeply on weak layers that formed in December (Persistent Slab).  With two avalanche problems overlapping on some slopes, managing or assessing the problems without taking on significant risk is difficult.  Weak layers are common on most slopes highlighted by the Persistent Slab Rose, but the slab ingredient is missing from some terrain.  Wind erosion and previous avalanche activity removed the slab from some slopes, leaving a patchwork of snowpack structures across the terrain.   Carefully assess the terrain, and if you encounter a slab, you probably have found an unpredictable Persistent Slab problem, or at the very least, a recently formed Wind Slab.

In general, the snowpack is less troublesome in wind-sheltered areas.  You can encounter slab/weak layer combinations, but they are less common than in drifted areas.  Previous avalanche activity and faceting from relatively dry and cold weather have reduced the threat of a Persistent Slab but not eliminated the problem.  Slopes at higher elevations, yet sheltered, are more likely to have slabs as faceting has not weakened slabs as much (upper end of below treeline and near treeline elevation bands). Recent strong winds near the valley bottom created isolated slabs in open areas at low elevations.  So the possibility for slab avalanches lingers at lower elevations.    On slopes where you don't find a slab due to faceting and previous avalanche activity, expect the possibility of triggering Dry Loose avalanches.  Observers have reported easy-to-trigger sluffs on some steep slopes where they found a shallow and weak snowpack.  A few natural sluffs were reported from Climax Chutes early this week.

Regions covered