Avalanche forecast

Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Five human-triggered avalanches occurred in this zone in the past three days. Triggering a slab of wind-drifted snow large enough to bury you is likely. Even larger avalanches involving layers of weak snow buried 1-3' beneath the surface are most likely in steep, wind-affected terrain, but are possible in sheltered terrain as well. These types of slides can be triggered from long distances away from steeper slopes. You can significantly reduce your risk of triggering avalanches today by sticking to gentler terrain sheltered from the effects of the wind.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Skiers triggered avalanches involving layers of weak snow in this zone on each of the last three days (Avalanche Database here). All were large enough to bury you, or worse. A remotely triggered slide yesterday put 4' of debris on a summer trail nearly 2,000' below where it started. Stop, take a look at the photo to the right/above, and read that again. 

    These layers of weak snow have proven to be most widespread on slopes that directly face the sun. Here, you'll find a crust with weak facets sitting on top of it, all capped by a dense slab. On slopes that face away from the sun, the distribution of these weak layers is spottier. Some slopes harbor pockets of surface hoar and small facets that is reactive in snowpack tests and others don't. 

    Triggering an avalanche involving these layers remains a very real possibility today. Recent winds are building slabs and adding stress to these weak layers. You're most likely to trigger one of these slabs in steep terrain that has been recently wind-loaded, but this problem exists in sheltered terrain as well. Avalanches on persistent weak layers can be triggered from long distances away from steeper slopes. They can break wider than you might expect, pull back into gentler terrain above steeper slopes, and impact valley bottoms. 

    Want to significantly decrease your risk of triggering a large avalanche today? You can do so by sticking to gentler terrain, free of overhead hazards, that is sheltered from the effects of the wind. As a bonus, you'll also find the best skiing and riding here.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION - WEAK SNOW NEAR THE GROUND: A layer of weak, faceted snow exists near the base of the snowpack. This layer has produced hundreds of avalanches this season. I triggered the most recent avalanche involving this weak snow on Friday in the Baker Creek drainage. This weak snow is buried beneath a thick, very dense slab of snow. Impacting deeply buried weak layers with your weight isn't easy, but the consequences are grave. You're most likely to trigger this layer in steep, wind-affected alpine terrain where snowpack depths are variable. Here, you'll have better access to this weak snow. Digging down to this weak snow with the track of your sled is another "great" way to impact this deep weak layer.

    (1/1/2023) Debris from a very large avalanche that was remotely triggered above Hyndman Creek in the Pioneer Mountains. This slide failed in a heavily wind-loaded area and very likely involved a persistent weak layer. It covered the summer trail with a pile of debris that was 100-150' wide and 4' deep.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Human-triggered wind slab avalanches occurred in this zone on each of the past two days. On Saturday, an experienced skier was caught and carried in a slide on Senate Peak. Yesterday I triggered a wind slab that produced a large debris pile on Galena Peak (photo at right/above). Slab growth continued overnight, and wind slabs will be reactive to your weight today. 

    While you are most likely to find large, sensitive wind slabs at upper elevations, that isn't the only place they exist. Moderate to strong gusty winds build slabs down into middle elevation terrain as well. Winds blowing from unusual directions (NE-E-E) build slabs in places you don't normally find them. I can hear the wind blowing outside the office here in Ketchum, and I'm sure there are some slabs building in the low elevation terrain in this zone as well. Think of places like the steep slopes in the Boulder foothills, at the mouth of Baker Creek, and the terrain on the east side of the highway south of Stanley.

    Be on the lookout for signs the wind has been moving the snow around, like drifts and dunes and scalloped textures on the snow surface. If you're traveling through thick, dense snow and seeing cracks around your feet, skis, or machine, you've found a sensitive wind slab. Even small avalanche terrain can have severe consequences where there are terrain traps like creek beds, and fast transitions from steep slopes to flat terrain below. These slabs are adding stress to the weak layers in our snowpack, described above. Any triggered wind slab has the distinct possibility to step-down to the deeper weak layers described above. The result will be a much larger and more destructive avalanche.

     

    (1/1/2023) Crown of a large, 1-2' thick wind slab that was intentionally triggered on Galena Peak on a N/NW aspect at 9,500'.

Avalanche Discussion

Human-Triggered Avalanches

Five human-triggered avalanches have been reported in the past three days. This is all you need to hear to know that it is dangerous out there. Most of these slides were on the large to very large end of the spectrum. Yikes. When I hear about these types of events I find myself thinking, how much worse could this have been? Close calls like this are vivid reminders that this game we are playing is a serious one.

We head into 2023 with a snowpack that is marked by complexity. A widespread layer of weak snow at the base of the snowpack has kept the Avalanche Danger elevated throughout the season. Big storms pushed this weak snow to its breaking point and produced widespread avalanche activity. These storms also buried new weak layers that are now located in the upper few feet of the snowpack. Unlike the weak snow near the ground, which is ugly just about everywhere, the more recent weak layers are much more variable. They seem to be at their worst on slopes that face the sun, where small facets are sitting on top of a crust. However, they have also produced avalanches, collapses, and unstable snowpack test scores on shaded slopes. The overlapping instabilities and hazards posed by this patchwork of weak layers are challenging even for professionals to keep track of. 

I think of entering avalanche terrain as "playing the game." When we choose to enter terrain where triggering avalanches is possible, it is important that we do so consciously, and that we are honest with ourselves about the potential outcomes. I'm not telling you not to enter avalanche terrain, that isn't my job. I'm trying to help you understand what type of game you are playing when you choose to do so. It is a game with odds that are impossible to calculate, and with outcomes that can range from the best run of your life to the life-shattering loss of your partner. I have experienced both ends of this scale. 

Think about this weekend's near-misses when you are in the mountains today. Have an honest conversation with your partner on the drive to the trailhead about the game that you are planning to play. Spend some time imagining what would happen if you or your partners were caught in a large slide in the terrain you are choosing. If you choose to enter avalanche terrain you are choosing to accept the full range of outcomes. Be honest with yourself about what that looks like. 

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