Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Clearing sky for the New Year will increase the chance of seeing slab and wet avalanches on solar aspects. You could find locally higher danger in areas experiencing full sun. Keep an eye on the terrain overhead. You can still trigger large slab avalanches, especially in wind loaded, alpine terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Near-freezing temperatures and increasing sun will warm the 1-2' of new snow found across West Central. This combination should set loose the first volley of wet avalanches for the New Year. The biggest question is how big they will get.

    Pay attention to slopes overhead and look for initial signs of instability like snow shedding from trees and rocks. Pinwheels or balls of snow rolling down the slope are also telltale signs of warming. If you see these it would be a great time to give a wide berth to slopes that face the sun. Though initially small, wet avalanches could grow in size or trigger a slab avalanche lower on the hill and run farther than expected. 

    Calm to light winds are forecast so don't count on a breeze to keep the snow surface cool. With the winter sun low in the sky you may be chilly in the shade at valley bottom while the slopes above you become balmy in a bad way. 

     

    Small loose wet avalanches like these are a sign to get off and away from solar slopes. Larger ones may not be far behind.

    Photo: Alyssa Young

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet avalanches are what you are most likely to see on Sunday, but don't forget about the 1-2' of new snow at mid and upper elevations. While there is a chance you could trigger a slab on any aspect, you are more likely to do so on slopes with recent wind loading.  There is also a greater chance of triggering one of these avalanches on convex breakovers or other unsupported terrain features like hanging slopes above or around cliffs.

    Look for visual clues like wind-affected snow surfaces and cornices to determine where wind slabs lie in wait. A few inches of soft snow might hide these clues in some areas. Areas of stiffer snow are also a great indicator that you are in wind affected terrain and could trigger a slab on a steep, downwind slope.

    It would still be wise to assess the bond of new snow layers before committing to any avalanche terrain using simple tests you can do as you travel. When in doubt just pick lower-angle, planar terrain to start your new year.  It might also be easier to trigger a slab on a steep slope warming in the sun.

     

    (12/31/2022)

    A human-triggered avalanche in steep wind loaded terrain. Baker Backcountry in West North (NE aspect @ 5000').

    Photo: Adam Ü

Avalanche Discussion

West Central weather stations and snotel sites recorded another 0.5-1.0" of precipitation Friday night into Saturday. Observations varied greatly between surrounding zones. In Snoqualmie Pass wet avalanches were the main issue at low and mid elevations while noticeable wind transport was found at higher elevations. Lingering storm slab instabilities were reported from Stevens Pass. Widespread natural and human triggered avalanche activity was noted in West North, in particular backcountry terrain around the Mt. Baker Ski Area that received significantly more snow than other areas of the Cascades. With no actual observations from this zone, the best bet for more information would be to reference the forecast and discussion from the nearest zone adjacent to where you are traveling in West Central. Happy New Year!

 

 

 

 

 

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