Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

As winds shift to the north with intensified speeds, monitor for new and old wind slab development and instabilities near and above treeline. Heightened avalanche danger exists near terrain features that encourage drifting. The turn to warm and sunny weather will bring about generally safe avalanche conditions, with the possibility of wet-loose activity on steep solar-lit slopes. Watch for signs of warming and move to shadier aspects to avoid this problem.    

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Today, the first big influencing weather factor will be the shift in wind direction. Winds have blown predominantly out of the west and southwest. Today they will blow out of the north, reaching strong to extreme speeds near 10,000 feet. This occurrence will redistribute snow back onto south aspects. Drifts are mostly likely to form in and around protected alpine pockets, where the snow is less likely to sublimate. Watch for blowing snow and identify terrain features developing wind drifts.    There is still a remote chance of triggering a previously formed wind drift on north and east aspects near and above treeline. East aspects are the most subjected to cross-loading, which will further the size and sensitivity of existing drifts. Anticipate this problem below ridgelines, rock outcroppings, and along convex rolls and gully walls where there is evidence of wind effect and cornices. Feel and test for cohesive snow properties to better evaluate if a slope is unstable. 

    A representative convex, wind loaded terrain feature that may still host a wind slab today

    Photo: Eric Falconer

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    The second big weather influencer will be the above freezing temperatures and ample sunshine. These two factors may lead to wet-loose avalanche activity on steep solar-lit slopes near and below treeline. While perhaps not a very likely occurrence today, this problem will begin to take hold and become more paramount as we transition to a more spring-like weather pattern. Observe for pre-cautionary signs like pinwheels, roller balls, and dampening snow surfaces, as these could lead to more significant activity like point releases. If you find yourself experiencing wet and unconsolidated surface snow, move to a shadier aspect and avoid steep terrain. 

    (1/23/2024)

    Some trees shedding snow, causing some wet-loose action below treeline

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

Find out more HERE about the previous 24 hours on Mount Shasta. Time and stable weather will contribute to the settlement and stabilization of the snowpack, and this week's warm weather will certainly aid in that process. Heavy solar input and harsh wind chill will likely lead to the development of surface crusts and variable surfaces at the upper elevations. For now, if venturing into avalanche terrain, remain vigilant, do your homework, and be ready to self-assess to safely and confidently step out.    Mount Shasta is fashionably displaying her white dress. The blue skies above, with the smell of cedar trees and birds chirping, always gets me thinking about spring! The time is near at hand to begin gathering your climbing and mountaineering kits. Remember, there are additional risks associated with climbing: slips and falls, falling objects, and avalanches. Warm days with below freezing nights can form deadly slick sliding surfaces and cause rocks and rime ice to become dislodged. Always be prepared with the proper gear and have the knowledge and skills needed to safely and responsibly climb.   

 

The Everitt Memorial Highway is OPEN. Castle Lake road is still closed.

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