Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will increase to Considerable in the afternoon as warming temperatures and sun decreases stability. Look and feel for snow surfaces becoming wet and slushy as natural and human triggerd wet slab avalanches will be then possible, particularly on slopes facing the sun. Move out of steep terrain if you are sinking into wet snow and limit exposure around or below cornices.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Increasing temperatures the last 5 days above freezing across most elevations has allowed water to penetrate through the snowpack increasing the possibility of large human and natural wet slab avalanches 1-2 feet deep. Avalanches on southerly aspects sheltered from the wind around rock features will be most likely. Avoid steep slopes if you encounter wet snow and are sinking significantly into a slushy snowpack. The snowpack is constantly changing during warming temperatures on a day to day basis. Therefore, multiple tracks on a slope are not an indicator of stability with this avalanche problem. 

    Wet Loose: Continued wet loose avalanches will be likely today. These avalanches start at a point and can entrain large amounts of snow and push into terrain traps. 

    Cornice Falls: Increased temperatures will also destabilize cornices. Give cornices a wide margin of safety and be careful along ridgelines as they can break further back than expected. Limit exposure under cornices where natural falls could occur. 

    Monitor snow surfaces throughout the day to avoid encountering any of the problems listed above. All these problems will be most likely in the afternoon. Seek snow that is colder and not wet on shaded slopes.

    (3/19/2024)

    A wet slab avalanche that occured yesterday in the adjacent zone of the Tetons. These avalanches will be most likely on slopes facing the sun near rock features in the afternoon. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Triggering an avalanche remains possible on weak snow buried 2-4 feet deep below hard slabs. This weak, sugary snow exists across all aspects and elevations near the base of the snowpack. These avalanches are also difficult to predict, but areas where triggering is most probable include steep, rocky, and wind affected slopes on the north half of the compass. These slopes contain thin, shallow spots where riders can impact the weak layers more easily. Again, limit exposure underneath cornices. Cornice falls are the most likely way to trigger a very large persistent slab avalanche.

    This persistent slab avalanche was snowmobile-triggered on an East aspect at 9000'. 

    (3/17/2024)

Avalanche Discussion

As mentioned above, consistent warm temperatures above freezing above and below 9,000’ since 3/15 has slowly destabilized the snowpack. Night time temperatures below freezing will create lower avalanche danger in the morning. The threshold of wet slab avalanches occurring will be possible with the warmest temperatures forecasted today. These avalanches are difficult to predict, but clear indications of the snow becoming wet with easy boot or snowmobile track penetration will increase the likelihood of encountering wet avalanche problems. The best way to manage this problem is noticing these wet snow surfaces and seeking more shaded terrain that remains colder. Get up and get out early if you plan to ride on slopes facing the sun. While seeking more shaded terrain, watch for terrain highlighted in the Persistent Slab problem. Southerly aspects where the sun heats up snow surfaces will be where these problems are most relevant. Monitor these changing conditions as danger will increase throughout the day.

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