Avalanche forecast

Newberry

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

On Saturday, human triggered avalanches are likely in wind drifted snow and could be large.  Wind drifted snow is most often found at higher elevations where the wind is stronger and there are less trees, but it also occurs lower in the terrain adjacent to the lava flows and lakes (anywhere the wind can freely blow snow).  The new snow may be particularly unstable on sheltered North faces below treeline where it may have fallen on weak, faceted crystals.  While these avalanches would be shallower, they could still injure a rider when they occur above terrain traps like gullies or cliffs that make the consequences of an avalanche worse.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    On Saturday the greatest hazard will be on slopes that have collected wind drifted snow.  By Saturday morning, storm totals could reach close to a foot of new snow.  Wind deposited snow could be 3-5 times that deep which means avalanches could easily be large enough to bury or injure a rider.  Watch for patterns of wind loading:  Is there currently blowing snow?  Where is the snow deeper, and does it form a consolidated slab that you could pick up?  Look for soft pillowy textures.  If you have any doubt, avoid steep slopes, or ride in more sheltered terrain.

    Wind slabs will exist beneath cornices and ridgelines, but they will also exist along the margins of lava flows, or in any wind break that is next to open terrain.  The lava flow margins might check all the boxes on Saturday: steep, wind loaded, weak snow underneath, and terrain traps.  Be careful on the North facing margins.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    While the new snow in sheltered terrain will be relatively shallow (less than a foot deep), it may overlay weak snow from our month of high pressure.  For the past month I've been finding (and seeking out) North facing, sheltered, glades where the surface snow became faceted and weak.  This old surface snow may provide a weak layer beneath the new storm snow, and avalanches may propagate further or be easier to trigger.

    The main advice here is to keep this possibility in mind, and tread conservatively.  Start with smaller slopes and avoid terrain traps if the terrain you've chosen meets the criteria of northerly and sheltered.

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