Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack around Hurricane Ridge is gaining strength. However, above 5000 ft, slabs building above a potentially weaker interface could break more widely than you expect on recently or actively wind loading slopes. Dial it back if you find shooting cracks or whumphs in your terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Small amounts of new snow have arrived in a trickle since the New Year. We're expecting about more of the same...perhaps another inch of snow in the next 24 hours along with light to moderate ridgeline winds. Widespread surface hoar was observed 12/31. If wind slabs overly this surface hoar in any locations, they would be touchy, and break more widely than you expect. Although such a problem is theoretical since we have yet to observe any buried surface hoar, you'd be wise to use hand shears and your favorate column test to evaluate the upper snowpack on representative test slopes before engaging with potential wind-loaded terrain.

    (1/2/2025)

    Example from the West South zone: Obvious signs of wind transport along this exposed ridge pointed toward potentially loaded slopes. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

NPS Rangers reported 2" wind slabs on lee slopes that were well bonded to the old snow.  Deeper in the snowpack, they identified a layer that failed around 1 meter down on a density and grain interface. This layer didn't propagate. A party on 1/2 may have identified an older wind slab that retained some reactity about 1.5 ft down. Such an older wind slab should be gaining strength, but it's not a bad idea to have a look before committing to a steeper slope on Saturay.

The Thursday-Friday storm delivered mild temperatures (32 degreee temperatures at Hurricane Ridge), but far less snowfall than expected (only around an inch) that fell Friday morning. The snowpack has settled around 4-5" since it reached a peak depth of 52" on 12/29 despite minor snowfalls since then. NPS rangers in the Hurricane Ridge area noted widespread surface hoar after clear cold weather on 12/31, and these weak snow grains remain largely preserved  (less so on steeper southerly aspects with a thin sun crust) on Thursday, but were not noted by Rangers on Friday. There were no signs of recent avalanche activity in the Hurricane Ridge area and heading into this storm cycle, cornices are not particularly large for what they can be.  The stout Solstice crust formed following our last major rain event and could be found 2-2.5' down from the surface on a north aspect near 6000' (total snow depth around 6' or 2m).   Ample snow cover makes for easier travel above 4000', however near this elevation, holes, creeks, and other obstacles quickly impede easy navigation. 

If more snow or wind loading occurs than forecast, it may be easier to identify any areas where weak snow has been buried. You'd expect to find cracking, whumphs or potentially small natural avalanches in actively wind loading terrain.Prior to this storm, 

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