The avalanche danger is generally LOW.
Still, isolated pockets of soft and hard wind slab may be found in exposed terrain. I also expect some degree of dry loose and wet loose on steep northerly and southerly aspects, respectively.
Easterly winds in the Wasatch can create tricky avalanche conditions. Right now, there are two main wind-related issues:
Triggering an avalanche that fails in the buried facets and depth hoar near the ground is becoming increasingly unlikely, and this avalanche problem is close to dormancy.
The most suspect terrain is steep, thin, rocky areas, where an avalanche could fail in the deeply buried persistent weak layer. Near-surface facets beneath hard wind slabs are now a concern, creating a new weak layer to monitor in the short term, especially during the next loading event.
Join the UAC at Deer Valley on January 30th for the 2nd Annual Blizzard Ball Gala. Bruce Tremper, the Former Director of the Utah Avalanche Center, will deliver the keynote address.
No new avalanches were reported from the backcountry yesterday; Brian Smith observed that the wind slabs felt mostly welded in. The protected northerly aspects, particularly at the mid and low elevations are becoming so weak that they are starting to sluff.
Find all avalanches from the past few days on the observations and avalanche page.
Skies are clear.
Temps are in the mid to upper 20s up high, the teens down low. Winds are light to moderate from the east and northeast.
The east wind put the hurt on a lot of exposed terrain and even eroded cornices, flinging the whales themselves back up onto the ridgeline proper. Brian Smith's excellent report from the "backyard' can be found here.
The Outlook: Interesting, to say the least. A series of storms arrive late Friday with a good moisture tap and moderate to strong westerly winds. I'm bullish on this series of storms and wouldn't be surprised to see a couple-few inches of water or snow-water-equivalent by the time it's all said and done. That's the good news. The bad news is that the expected heavy, dense snow, fluctuating temperatures, and strong winds will dramatically increase the avalanche danger. Stay tuned.
Check out this insightful blog by Paige, Jeremy, and Drew where they break down the complexities of Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) avalanches, why thin and rocky areas are especially dangerous, and how to manage the risks effectively in the backcountry.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
