Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Rain and above freezing temperatures since Monday night continue to make large and very large wet slab avalanches likely. This potentially destructive avalanche problem should slowly stabilize tonight through tomorrow night as snow levels creep down and colder temperatures refreeze our wet upper snowpack. Avoid steep slopes and the flatter terrain below them until this refreeze starts to occur. Continued precipitation should turn back to snow for most of our terrain by late Thursday. Watch for possible new snow instabilities at our highest elevations today and increasingly at lower elevations as snow levels slowly drop.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Wet slab instability remains our primary avalanche problem and this high risk for low reward should make the choice to avoid avalanche terrain an easy one. Northerly terrain where water might weaken the lingering persistent weak layers to their breaking point presents the greatest concern for the largest avalanches. Remember that the very heavy nature of wet slab, and also the possible wet loose, avalanches make them particularly destructive and good at taking you for a ride. All aspects and elevations remain suspect until the refreeze starts to stabilize our wet snow.

Avalanche Discussion

Recorded precipitation since the snowfall turned to rain late Monday varies from 1” to nearly 4” both within and across our three forecast zones. Influence on our snowpack and wet slab instability from the rain varies accordingly. More consistent above freezing temperatures continue to affect all our terrain. This extended period of warming and wetting penetrates deeper into our snowpack with time. The up to 2’ of storm snow that fell Sunday and Monday, which we know produced avalanches both before and after the rain started, sits on a varied and wind affected layer of snow from last week. Deeper persistent weak layers, most prominent on northerly aspects, include weak snow around both the Valentine’s Day and January 12th crusts and a variable surface hoar layer between them. We often mention uncertainty with wet slab avalanche problems, and we don’t know exactly which layers might produce avalanches when during this warming cycle. We do know that the significant warming and wetting of this complex upper snowpack will keep our terrain choices conservative until the coming refreeze stabilizes our snowpack.

Snow levels should drop Thursday and bring some snow back to most of our terrain. Watch for greatest accumulation and related avalanche problems at the highest elevations that will receive the most snow. Except for these potential new snow instabilities, our snowpack should exhibit quite good stability approaching the weekend.

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