Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

We may only get a short-lived superficial refreeze overnight before temperatures rise again in the afternoon. You may still trigger a wet avalanche on steep slopes. Steer away from cornices and consequential slopes during the heat of the afternoon.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The recent snow is still hasn't fully transitioned into a spring melt-freeze cycle. After a brief cold night, wet loose avalanches may become more active as the day warms up. Look for signs of wet loose avalanche activity such as rollerballs and fresh fan-shaped avalanches. There is uncertainty about how the snowpack is adjusting, so keep an eye and ear out for signs of current activity. Even though the expected size is relatively small, they could run far in very steep locations. Also, keep in mind that even small avalanches can push you over cliffs or into rocks and trees.

    Any large cornice falls could be dangerous in their own right, and they could also trigger deeper avalanches below. Attempt to minimize your time underneath lingering under large overhung cornices, and don't be afraid to steer widely around potential runout zones. Some shaded, northerly aspects near and above treeline may still harbor more deeply buried faceted layers. Large triggers, such as cornices, could initiate deeper slab avalanches on these layers.

    (3/22/2022)

    Large (D1.5) wet loose avalanche in one of the main Cutthroat paths above Hwy 20.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

After a brief overnight freeze, expect temperatures to climb back into the mid 30's on Thursday. A widespread natural wet loose avalanche cycle occurred on Tuesday near Washington Pass. On wind-sheltered NW-NE aspects near and above treeline, observers found near-surface facets 1-2 feet below the surface and often on a crust. This layer was the source of persistent slab avalanches near the Mount Baker ski area and other parts of the Cascades. So it would be worth digging down to identify weak layers before committing to steeper terrain. 

A deeper persistent weak layer still exists in the zone. The layer can still be found about 3 feet deep, sandwiched between eroding crusts on NW-NE aspects near and above treeline and has been particularly problematic in the Harts Pass area. The most recent of these occurred on March 9th in Allen Basin. While triggering an avalanche on this layer (the late January facets) is unlikely, the consequences could be serious. You can limit your exposure to shallow, rocky areas and steep and unsupported slopes. After a widespread avalanche cycle on 2/28-3/1, observers reported several deep crowns and avalanches throughout the zone that likely ran on the weak layer. See the avalanche occurrence database for more details.

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