Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You can still trigger a large avalanche in wind drifted snow at upper elevations close to the Cascade Crest. As precipitation changes from snow to light rain throughout the day, expect the potential for wet avalanches to increase. Travel cautiously in these dynamic conditions and choose simple terrain when the recent cold snow begins to thaw.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Additional light snow and wind will continue to build fresh drifts and thicken existing slabs. Of most concern are north and east aspects above 6000ft close to the Cascade Crest where wind slabs may still rest on weak snow grains above a crust. Observations of avalanche activity suggest that the sensitivity of this layer may vary significantly throughout the terrain. Therefore, adjacent slopes may react differently, and it may not be the first person on the slope who triggers an avalanche. Be sure to dig down around 1ft to assess how the recent snow is bonded to the underlying crust looking for easy or sudden failures. The best way to avoid being surprised by one of these avalanches is to stick to wind-sheltered areas or lower angle slopes.

    (3/18/2022)

    The crown from a recent snowmobile triggered wind slab that failed on the March 8th facets at approximately 6800ft on an eastern aspect on Darland Mountain. 

    Photo: Andrew Kiefer

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Light precipitation Monday will transition from snow to rain by afternoon. As the cold dry snow from the past week gets wet, it will rapidly lose strength with increasing potential for wet avalanches. These conditions may not develop until late Monday, but elevated danger should continue overnight and into Tuesday as freezing levels continue to skyrocket.  There is some uncertainty whether wet avalanche activity will peak with the rain late Monday, or with 8500ft freezing levels and strong March sun Tuesday. Regardless, we expect wet avalanches over the next 48 hours. Give the snowpack time to adjust and choose conservative terrain if you're caught out in the rain.

    Example photo of rollerballs and developing wet loose issues we expect for Monday Photo: Andrew Kiefer

Avalanche Discussion

NWAC staff traveled in the Ahtanum Meadows area on Friday (Observation). Rounding facets were identified overlying the Early March Crust, which was buried about 11-15 inches deep. Both natural and human-triggered avalanches were observed that failed on this layer 3/16-17. Although avalanche activity on this layer so far seems to be isolated to areas where the wind has drifted the snow into deeper slabs, it could become a more widespread problem with dynamic weather over the next 48 hours bringing wind, snow, rain, and rising temperatures.

The East South zone is certainly not breaking any records for snowpack depths this winter. The warm temperatures associated with recent storms kept snow accumulations minimal at elevations below 6000ft. Below treeline areas have very little or no snowpack and many southerly aspects are melted out to ridgetops. Utilizing roads and summer trails to access higher elevations with a more robust snowpack is the best option. Travel cautiously, especially at lower elevations, to avoid impacts with rocks or stumps, and beware of open creeks.

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