Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Tricky and ultimately dangerous avalanche conditions will continue as snow showers load weak layers in the upper snowpack.  Avoid wind-loaded slopes where large avalanches are more likely and may break widely.  If you see new avalanches, natural or human-triggered, retreat to lower angle slopes sheltered from overhead exposure to avalanche paths. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    This isn't your usual post-storm day - avalanches will be easier to trigger in some areas and can break more widely than you expect, with a large variation in how easy it is to trigger avalanches across the terrain.  Higher elevation slopes where the winds have drifted new snow will be capable of producing larger and more consequential avalanches.  Tread carefully.  New avalanches - natural or human triggered, will be the clear message to avoid steep open slopes in nearby terrain and reduce your exposure to large avalanche paths that start higher in the terrain.  A large (D2) avalanche broke widely (300') in the Hurricane Ridge area Saturday on a North aspect (north bowl) after an intentional cornice drop (AC).   There was also an avalanche involvement with a partial burial on an easterly aspect in the Hurricane Ridge area.  

    Handpits, and small test slope results should not be used to deem nearby slopes safe due to the variability in the old snow surface heading into this storm cycle.  You're going to have to constantly re-assess the snow stability as you change aspects at middle and upper elevations.  Assume steep open wind-loaded slopes are suspect until proven otherwise. 

    Lower elevations saw warmer temperatures and rain up to 4000-4500' on Friday and are less likely to have surviving weak snow layers or significant new snow avalanche concerns.  

    With the drip drip drip of new low density snow powder, you may start to see or trigger loose dry avalanches or sluffs in very steep terrain (40 deg) with significant new storm snow.  These smaller avalanches can be easily managed, but use care near terrain traps like cliff bands or gullies, where even a small avalanche could spell trouble. 

    (2/1/2025)

    Human triggered soft slab avalanche (10" deep) on West facing Avalanche Face adjacent to the Hurricane Ridge Ski Area. 

    Photo: NPS

Avalanche Discussion

January ended on a wet note, the opposite of what was a remarkably dry month.  Around a foot or more of new snow should have accumulated above 4500-5000' by the end of Saturday in wind-sheltered terrain, with lower new snowfall totals below 4500'.  This new snow will be resting on a variety of old snow surfaces, crusts of varying thicknesses, and old, weak snow (facets and surface hoars).  This setup has everyone throughout the region on edge for what may be a tricky and sensitive snowpack that could be with us for a while.  As we incrementally load the older weak snow surface (the January Drought Layer or JDL), we may reach a tipping point where avalanches become more likely and harder to manage safely.  

On Saturday, NPS staff relayed deep new snow and three human triggered avalanches in the Hurricane Ridge area.  One was 10" deep on W facing Avalanche Face.  The other was larger and much wider (300') in North Bowl.  Separately, an unintentional skier triggered avalanche resulted in a caught and carry, and a partial burial on an easterly aspect (Gutter Line).  Luckily there were no injuries reported. This is more than enough information to dial it back, dangerous avalanche conditions are here.   In non-wind affected away from ridgelines, the storm snow was generally right-side up and more stable.  This could change with additional loading.  

Prior to this storm in the Hurricane Ridge area, a stout ski-supportable crust could be found on steep southerlies. On shady aspects, a skiff of weak snow could be found over a breakable crust. Weak, faceted snow could also be found between several crusts in the upper snowpack.  The new snow has vastly improved travel but be aware of travel hazards still lurking beneath the new snow; stumps, rocks, glide cracks, open creeks, etc may be hidden at lower elevations or aspects that were melted out just a few days ago. 

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