Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Winds shifted directions repeatedly the last few days and likely built slabs in odd places. Be leery of pillow-like drifts in alpine terrain, along the base of cliffs, and in the tops of chutes. Older weak snow still exists. Isolated avalanches could release deeper, especially on rocky complex slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Several rounds of significant winds from about every direction imaginable likely left a patchwork of slabs from the past several days. Some may be soft, others hard. Increasing winds on Friday could once again start to move snow. With all these changes, some slabs might exist in weird locations. 

    You’ll need to piece together visual clues like textured surfaces and drifts with how the snow feels underneath you to figure out which slopes hold slabs and which don’t. Steer around steep potentially wind loaded areas, particularly if you have any reason to believe firmm, hollow hard slabs might exist.

    (2/20/2025) Example: Textured surfaces point toward potentially wind loaded slopes. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Overall the persistent weak layers have been quiet the last few days. Avalanche professionals in the northern part of the zone reported a large collapse and significant snowpack tests on 2/17, but the layers seemed to settle down as the week progressed. Even still, the weak grains are still there. 

    Friday’s weather won’t do much to stress this problem. It would likely take being in just the wrong spot or a larger trigger like a small wind slab or cornice to get this issue to rear its ugly head. If you’re stepping into steeper terrain on shaded aspects, push the odds in your favor by using simpler, planar slopes with clean runouts.

    (2/6/2025)

    This large (D2) slab avalanche was likely triggered by cornice fall and we suspect it ran on the JDL weak layer. 

    Liberty Bowl, NNW, 7,200ft

    Photo: John Lucia

Avalanche Discussion

Friday looks like the proverbial “calm before the storm.” Mild temperatures, cloudy skies, a few inches of snow, and light to moderate winds should create a rather quiet day. This will start to change Friday night and even more on Saturday night. Several very wet and warm storms are heading our way. The East North could fend off the warm-up for a bit, but with such a weak snowpack, expect the avalanche danger to rise over the weekend. 

Overall the snowpack in the zone is weak, faceted, and variable. That makes it harder than normal to sum up, and even more challenging to assess. Facets from the January Drought Layer (JDL) are the main concern. They were responsible for the large collapse mentioned earlier in the forecast. However, notable avalanches on other layers mean it’s a lot more complex than just targeting one specific layer of concern. Outside of wind loaded terrain, these layers haven’t had much of a slab. Lacking that key part of the avalanche recipe has likely limited the activity. 

Very cold temperatures at lower elevations and in the eastern part of the zone created a very weak and faceted snowpack. It’s starting to warm up and may even rain down low. That could make for some interesting conditions.

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