Moab

Conditions are about to change! A powerful storm will move into the region this evening bringing strong winds and heavy snowfall to the mountains. Very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected through the weekend.

The avalanche danger is generally LOW this morning and should stay that way throughout the day. It may be possible to trigger isolated, shallow soft slabs of wind-drifted snow on the leeward side of ridge crests and terrain features near treeline and above. I expect the danger to begin to rise around dinner time, but be alert to changing conditions with increased wind speeds, and especially if snow begins to fall earlier than expected.

We are deeply saddened to report an avalanche fatality in East Bowl of Silverfork in the Salt Lake Area Mountains on Saturday. We will provide a full accident report in the coming days.

Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.

Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy above and bare dirt down low. AWD with good tires recommended.

Grooming Conditions: 2 inches of snow covered trails on Tuesday night.

See the avalanche database here.

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 2" Season Total Snow: 65" Depth at Gold Basin: 28"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 10-15 G 20 Temp: 4° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 73%

Weather

It looks like we are finally going to get some snow and it should be a good amount. Currently, things are calm before the storm. Skies are clear, temperatures are in the single digits, and southwest winds are blowing 10-15 mph along ridgetops. Look for increasing southwest winds and clouds developing later this afternoon as a powerful atmospheric river moves in from California. Deep moisture on southwesterly flow will begin to deliver heavy snow after sundown and it looks like it's going to be a wild night up there. Up to a foot of snow seems likely by Friday morning with continued snowfall throughout the day. 12-18 inches seem likely from this event although some models are calling for more.

General Conditions

For today, there isn't much change in conditions. By now you know that after more than a month without significant snowfall, the entire snowpack on shady aspects near treeline and below consists of weak, faceted snow. Above treeline, surfaces are wind hardened, textured, or scoured down to the rocks. In simple terms, we have a variety of weak and slick surfaces and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that by adding a load of snow, we'll have unstable conditions. Ryan Huels was out and about yesterday, and he provides more details in this excellent observation.

Conditions above treeline. Ryan Huels photo.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.