Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Regions
Glacier.
Come on, Ullr, give us some snow! Early season hazards, at all elevations, need more snow on top of them to be less of a concern.
Weather Forecast
Increasing cloud today, with flurries beginning this evening and continuing tomorrow. Snowfall amounts will be less than 5cm. Light to moderate southerly winds at ridge-top and alpine high's of -7*C today and Monday. The first real pulse of snow is forecasted to arrive Tuesday, bringing 15-25cm, moderate/strong SW winds, and alpine high's of -6*C.
Snowpack Summary
The height of snow at Mt Fidelity is below average for this time of year; see the graph for more info. The main layer of concern is the November 21st surface hoar, which is down 25-40cm. This layer is most likely to be triggered on steep solar aspects, where it overlies a crust.
Avalanche Summary
All is quiet on the avalanche front this past week, with no reports of new avalanches in the past 5 days. Groups have been riding steep, unsupported features on many aspects and only seeing minor surface sluffing.
Confidence
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.