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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 27th, 2018–Nov 28th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Up to 35cm of new snow in the alpine from the storm Monday night and Tuesday will keep the avalanche danger elevated. If you've been out please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network MIN.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Overnight TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy / Alpine temperature -2 / Light southwest wind / Freezing level 1100 m.WEDNESDAY: Scattered flurries, accumulation up to 5cm in the alpine / Alpine temperature -1 / Light to moderate west wind / Freezing level 1300 mTHURSDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / Alpine temperature -2 / Light southwest wind / Freezing level 1200 mFRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Alpine temperature -3 / Light west wind / Freezing level 1000 m

Avalanche Summary

Expect storm and wind slab avalanches to be possible in the alpine from this latest blast of snow Monday night and Tuesday. With warm temperatures, expect to see small loose wet avalanches at lower elevations where the precipitation may have fallen as rain. There have been no recent reports of avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 35cm of new snow has fallen Monday night through Tuesday. This adds an additional load onto a recently formed layer of weak, feathery surface hoar. The distribution of this surface hoar layer is uncertain at this time. South and southwest winds are redistributing the new snow. A mixed layer of melt-freeze crusts and sugary facets sits near the base of the snowpack. The snowpack is deepest in the alpine and at tree line, where you might now expect to find total depths of around 70 cm. These depths taper rapidly at lower elevations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.