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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 2nd, 2018–Dec 3rd, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

Waiting for a persistent slab to stabilize isn't fun, but it's better than getting caught pushing the conditions. Uncertainty exists with the reactivity of the buried weak layers. Check out the Forecaster Blog here.

Confidence

Moderate - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud/ alpine temperatures near -10/ generally light winds from the northeast/ freezing level valley bottomTUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud/ alpine temperatures near -12/ ridgetop winds light with strong gusts from the northwest/ freezing levels valley bottomWEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud/ alpine temperatures -12/ ridgetop winds light from the northeast/ freezing levels valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a natural solar triggered avalanche cycle occurred mostly from steep solar aspects up to size 1.5. A natural size 3 slab avalanche was seen on Mt. Begbie (ENE aspect above 2000 m). We suspect the triggered to be rockfall or a cornice above the slope. This avalanche may have failed on the basal crust.Last Saturday, a human triggered size 3 avalanche was reported in the region. This avalanche likely ran on the October crust, as it was reported as a full depth avalanche. Two reports on this avalanche can be found on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

40-80 cm of recent snow sits on two layers of feathery surface hoar that are approximately buried 15 cm apart. One or both of these may be associated with a crust on south aspects. The surface hoar is mostly found at treeline, but it may be found in sheltered alpine areas. Snowpack test results on these layers are showing a variety of planar results which indicate that this interface may be susceptible to human triggers.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed near the end of October. This crust is associated with sugary weak faceted crystals and has shown some reactivity in the South Columbia region. Suspect slopes and terrain are open bowls that host a rocky thin to thick snowpack in the alpine or upper treeline. Snowpack depths taper quickly with elevation, many areas have over 200 cm in the alpine, between 100-170 cm at treeline, and 10-100 cm below treeline.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.