Confidence
Fair - Due to limited field observations
Weather Forecast
Sunday: Expect mostly cloudy skies, with a chance of flurries. Alpine temperatures should reach around -6 with freezing levels at 1400m and light northeasterly winds.Monday/Tuesday: Expect a clearing trend with scattered clouds, alpine temperatures reaching -5 and light northeasterly winds becoming gusty in the afternoons.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche observations have been limited in the last few days. We do have a report of a skier triggered event from the Duffey area: see the link below to the incident database.
Snowpack Summary
10-25cm of new snow has fallen at higher elevations accompanied by light to locally moderate south/southwest winds creating new windslabs in lee locations at treeline and in the alpine. The interface of the new snow is predominantly crusts (sun, wind, meltfreeze) and the bonds are poor in some locations.The previous storm (Wednesday) was accompanied by moderate to strong south/southwest winds which left variable snow distribution in exposed areas near ridgetop with dense wind slabs forming in lee and cross-loaded features. These slabs are now buried, but may still be reactive to heavy triggers or in specific locations. Up to 75cm below the surface you will likely find a melt-freeze crust from previous sunny weather. At the same interface, spotty surface hoar is still being reported in some high, north facing slopes.Cornices are huge and have grown new tabs under the current conditions.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.