Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 8th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
JMackenzie,
Avalanche Canada
A bit of new snow may fall overnight Sunday and into Monday, but this will do little to change the current conditions. It is critical to stay disciplined and stick to low angle, low consequence terrain with no overhead hazard. The snowpack is still prime for human triggering due to the persistent weak layers at the bottom of the snowpack.
Summary
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
One new size 1.5 slab avalanche was observed in the north bowl of Tent Ridge. This naturally triggered avalanche failed in the basal facets and scrubbed to ground.
Snowpack Summary
You may have noticed that very little has changed in our recent snowpack summaries, and that's because nothing is really changing. The snowpack is still very weak and generally scary. The mid-December surface hoar layer down 30cm at Treeline is reacting as a persistent slab with compression tests in the moderate range. Below this, the remainder of the snowpack is heavily facetted. Any avalanche triggered in the upper snowpack will almost certainly step down to the ground.
Forecasters are approaching all terrain conservatively and do not have much confidence in the snow pack, as it's one of the worst we've seen in many, many years.
Weather Summary
Sunday night could bring a windy pulse of weather with between 2 and 6cm of snow. By Monday morning the winds should settle down and be light from the SW with temperatures climbing to -6C.
Tuesday will be cloudy with a few more flurries and seasonal temperatures.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
This layer is easy to trigger from thin, weak shallow areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
If triggered the persistent slab is very likely to steep down to the deeper instability and involve the entire winter's snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 10th, 2023 4:00PM
