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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 6th, 2023–Feb 7th, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Hazard levels at Treeline and above could trend towards HIGH if the region receives more snow than what is forecasted. Keep an eye on local conditions and adjust terrain choice accordingly.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new reported or observed.

Snowpack Summary

Expected extreme winds and light snowfalls on Tuesday could change the surface snowpack conditions. Expect even more wind slabs to develop (or add to existing hard slabs) in the Alpine. At treeline watch for fresh surface wind slabs to develop through the day.

The rest of the snowpack has seen little change for weeks now. The concerning facets and depth hoar in the lower snowpack still exist, and while the mid-pack has enough density to carry the weight of a skier above 2100m, this is not necessarily the case at lower elevations.

Overall the snowpack condition of stiff and dense wind slabs on the surface, a reasonably dense mid-pack, all sitting on the "house of cards" of deeply buried weak layers, is still a recipe for concern. Full depth avalanches are still possible, especially where thin/shallow/rocky start zones are the potential trigger point.

Weather Summary

Tuesday will be cloudy with temps reaching -5C and light snow developing in the afternoon. Between 5 and 15cm are forecasted, but most models agree on lower amounts. Winds will be extreme and could be blowing at 100km/h out of the SW at ridgetop.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong winds over the past few days has made wind slabs in the upper snowpack more reactive. In addition, a pulse of light snow and extreme winds arrives Tuesday. Fresh thin wind slabs could be more reactive to natural and human triggering on Tuesday.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

Thin areas are where this layer will be easiest to trigger. Be thinking about wide propagations as the snowpack above is more cohesive than before.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3