Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 8th, 2015 8:52AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Inland.

It's easy to feel euphoric when the snow is deep, it's sunny, and you're out with your buds. Be careful not to let that mind set lead you out of conservative terrain Monday.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Looks pretty pleasant Monday and Tuesday. The freezing level should stay at the valley bottom, there will likely be periods of sunshine and winds should be light at all elevations. The next storm system starts to affect the region Tuesday night. This one is a bit warmer, the freezing levels will likely climb throughout the storm, winds are once again expected to be strong SW at ridgetop and 1 to 5cm are expected Tuesday Night. Look for another 1 to 5cm Wednesday and an additional 5 to 10cm Wednesday night.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday we received observations of the recent storm cycle which featured natural avalanches to size 3. The details are a bit fuzzy, but it sounds like most of this activity was limited to mid-storm instabilities. There is a good video of ski cut easily triggering a slab avalanche in seemingly benign terrain on the Bulkley Backcountry Ski Society facebook page too.

Snowpack Summary

The storm has produced approximately 30 to 70cm of dry low density snow accompanied by strong to extreme winds out of the E through SE. There are a number of weak layers in our snowpack, this storm has been a good test for all of them. Clear skies the next few days should allow operations to get out and see some terrain. Once those observations start trickling in we should have a better feel for which layers are players, and which interfaces have gone dormant/inactive. I'm curious about all the following layers: The early February surface hoar, (little is known about the distribution of this interface.) The late January crust, probably down 75 to 150cm in the south, likely shallower in the north. The mid-January rain crust (with some spatially spotty surface hoar on top), probably down 100 to 200cm. And finally, the crust/facet combination from November which is near the ground. It's not an easy snowpack to work with, we'd greatly appreciate your observations via the Mountain Information Network.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Natural avalanches have ceased and this is when it gets tricky. You may be gaining a bit of confidence, but this is when you're most likely to get involved in a wreck. Give yourself a healthy margin for error if you're looking to step out today.

Be very very cautious if you decide to step out into more challenging terrain.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Slopes receiving direct sun for the first time since the storm could produce natural avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 6

Persistent Slabs

Limited observations mean there's significant uncertainty concerning the deeper problem layers in the snowpack. I would manage this by assuming that every slope above treeline has the potential to produce a very large and destructive avalanche.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried crusts and/or surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

4 - 7

Valid until: Feb 9th, 2015 2:00PM