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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 16th, 2015–Dec 17th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Forecast new snow and wind will continue to build new wind slabs at higher elevations.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Freezing at valley bottoms throughout the forecast period. Light snow and moderate southerly winds overnight. Expect 3-5 cm by Thursday morning and another 3-5 cm during the day combined with strong southerly winds. Overcast with flurries on Friday. Light snow with very strong southerly winds on Saturday.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported from the region. This may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. I would expect newly formed wind slabs to be sensitive to human triggering for the next few days in high elevation lee terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Shallow early season snowpack with 60 cm at treeline in drier areas like Babine Mountain and 100 cm at treeline in more westerly areas like Ashman. Both Tsai creek and Shedin creek snow pillows are well below average and very close to historical minimums. Shallow usually means weak, and cooler temperatures over a shallow and weak snowpack may mean a chance of facetted crystals near the ground.  There may be some lingering surface hoar down 20-30 cm in some areas and I suspect that new surface hoar may be primed for burial by the forecast snow on Thursday.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Some pockets of windslab may continue to be found at higher elevations where winds have transported available snow.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2