Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 3rd, 2014–Jan 4th, 2014

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Saturday: Broken skies overnight with some clear periods or high clouds during the day. Cooler more seasonal temperatures with freezing levels dropping down to near sea level overnight and then rising to about 200 metres during the day. Moderate Northwest winds and no precipitation forecast.Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation. Light South winds becoming moderate as warm air moves in from the Pacific. Freezing level may rise to ridgetops.Monday: Overcast with moderate Southwest winds and warm air trapped at higher elevations.

Avalanche Summary

In the Southwest of the region, 30 cm of storm snow was very reactive to ski cutting up to size 1.5. There was also one natural avalanche size 2.0 wind slab release reported. Natural avalanches were reported from the Ashman area over New Year's, with one natural size 2.5 reported from a NW aspect that ran 3/4 of the path.

Snowpack Summary

Weaknesses within and under the recent storm snow will likely take several days to settle and strengthen after the storm passes. A number of rain crusts may exist in the upper and mid snowpack, primarily below 1500 m. Deeper in the snowpack a layer of facets/surface hoar formed in early December may be found in the top 100cm. The mid and lower snowpack is still structurally weak and faceted with depth hoar and an early season crust near the ground.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs may be 30 cm deep and closer to 50 cm where the Southwest winds during the storm transported snow onto North thru East aspects.

Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers near the base of the snowpack may continue to be triggered by light loads in weak shallow areas. These weak layers may not gain strength until sustained warm temperatures allow for rounding, bonding, and settlement.

Avoid thin, rocky or sparsely-treed slopes.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5