Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Purcells.
Looks like there will be a stable weather pattern for the next few days. Watch for fresh wind slabs in the lee of terrain features. Cornices have grown large and seem to be particularly fragile right now.
Confidence
High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.
Weather Forecast
Saturday Night: Cloudy with clear periods. Light northwest wind. Alpine high temperatures around -12.
Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud. Light to moderate west wind. Alpine high temperatures around -8.
Monday: Mix of sun and cloud. Light to moderate west wind. Alpine high temperatures around -6.
Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud. Light west wind. Alpine high temperatures around -5.
Avalanche Summary
Explosives control in the central part of the region on Thursday and Friday successfully targeted several cornices and wind slabs with a mix of small and large results (size 1-2.5). A couple of remotely triggered cornice falls were observed during the work, as well as one recent natural cornice fall that triggered a slab on the reloaded bed surface of a previous deep persistent slab avalanche.
There have been several reports through the last week of failing cornices and small wind slabs. See this MIN report for a helpful illustration. Explosive control also released several large avalanches breaking on deeply buried weak layers on a variety of aspects above 2200 m. This activity is a good reminder that this layer remains a problem in the region. Easier-to-trigger wind slab avalanches or cornice fall may have the potential to step-down to this layer.
Snowpack Summary
20-40 cm of snow from the early part of the week now overlies older wind-affected snow at high elevations, or over a widespread melt-freeze or rain crust with a variable upper extent of 1800-2000 metres in elevation. The recent snow has mainly shown reactivity where winds have had a chance to redistribute it into new slabs. A few reports from adjacent regions have shown poor bonding with the buried crust where it exists.
A weak layer of surface hoar may still be found about 90 cm deep around Golden and Kimberley, 50 cm deep around Invermere, and 130 cm deep along Kootenay Lake. Recent reports from the Golden area suggest a positive stabilizing trend. At lower elevations this layer has likely been bridged over by the above-mentioned crust.
As usual for the Purcells, the base of the snowpack contains basal facets. It remains possible to trigger these deep weak layers in shallow rocky start zones or from a heavy trigger such as a cornice fall.Â
Terrain and Travel
- Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Recent light snowfall combined with elevated and shifting winds will build new wind slabs. Be mindful of areas where wind slab and cornice distribution overlap.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
A layer of weak, sugary facets persists at the bottom of the snowpack at higher elevations. Steep, rocky alpine features where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin are the likely trigger points for this deep persistent slab problem. Easier-to-trigger wind slab avalanches or cornice falls could step down to this layer, resulting in very large and destructive avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5