Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 22nd, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.
Ross Campbell,
March continues to deliver snow with 120cm falling in the last 10 days at Mt. Fidelity (1900m), ~15cm forecasted for Wednesday and our height of snow is still above 4m!
Summary
Weather Forecast
The Inclement spring weather continues with more precipitation, warm temperatures, and gusty winds forecasted for Wednesday! A cold front will pass over Rogers Pass Wednesday afternoon, dropping ~15mm of precipitation, and strong South-Westerly winds. The Fl will rise to ~2000m in advance of the front, then fall to ~ 500m subsequently overnight.
Snowpack Summary
March keeps delivering with ~35cm of new snow at TL in the last 4 days, and ~ 120cm in the last 10! Some wind and warm temperatures coupled with the new snow will likely form soft slabs in the Alpine and exposed areas of TL. The Mar 11 sun crust is buried 50-70cm. On shaded aspects, small surface hoar may be buried down ~80cm (March 7).
Avalanche Summary
No new natural activity was observed in the HWY corridor on Monday. One size 1 soft slab was noted off Mt Cheops near Balu Pass on a E aspect ~2000m, ~15cm deep, 8m wide, and ran 15m in length. On Sunday, several slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were observed from steep terrain along the HWY corridor, likely being triggered by the strong South winds.
Confidence
Problems
Wind Slabs
Approximately 10-20cm of new snow is forecasted to fall on Wednesday, coupled with strong south-westerly wind, and warm temperatures. Expect new wind slabs on exposed terrain features in the Alpine and exposed areas of TL.
- Use caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.
- Watch for surface cracking and stiffer surface layers of snow.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
While avalanche activity on this layer is tapering off in Rogers Pass, human-triggered avalanches are still possible, especially on steep solar aspects. Our neighbors in the Monashees continue to witness activity on this layer.
- Convex features and steep unsupported slopes on solar aspects will be most prone to triggering.
- Evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Previous new snow, followed by rain, and warm temperatures could trigger a loose wet avalanche problem at lower elevations in steep unsupported terrain. The avalanches will be most hazardous on steep solar asp where the snowpack is weak and shallow.
- Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 23rd, 2022 4:00PM
