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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 10th, 2013–Jan 11th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Purcells.

All the recent avalanche activity should serve as a flashing red light, a conservative and cautious approach is required in the mountains this weekend.

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions

Weather Forecast

Friday: Light Winds out of North.  Freezing level at valley bottom.  No snow. 1500m temp: -10Saturday: Carbon copy of Friday.  Clear skies, no snow and light NW winds. 1500m temp: -10Sunday:  High pressure drives a fairly boring weather pattern. Same as Saturday.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday avalanches released naturally and were initiated by sledders, skiers and explosives. Avalanche activity was widespread to size 3.  It should be noted that there was some remote triggering too.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm has brought 60 - 100cm of new snow to the region. Consistent southwesterly winds have redistributed the new snow (dramatically in some areas) to create widespread windslabbing on lee and open features in the alpine and exposed treeline. Where the wind has been strongest, we have reports of windslabs much lower on slopes than normal.There have been avalanches reported both within the storm layers as well as at the initial storm interface, the January 4th layer. This layer consists of small facets, surface hoar on sheltered treeline and below treeline areas and sun crust on steep south and west facing slopes. The bonds with the facetted snow are improving while the surface hoar / sun crust interface is weak. The midpack is well bonded and strong. The deep crust/facet combo from early November still exists and concern remains (although unlikely) for triggering this layer from a shallow spot.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Previously strong winds formed thick wind slabs that deserve caution and respect.  Wind slabs may be found lower on slopes than you normally see them.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 6

Storm Slabs

Storm snow has settled into a cohesive slab 30 - 100 cm in depth.  This slab rests on a mixed bag of weak layers that when triggered result in large avalanches.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4