Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2016–Dec 16th, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Purcells.

Forecast strong winds will elevate the avalanche danger through the weekend.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Mainly clear skies and cold temperatures, the coldest on Friday as low as minus 25 as the arctic hight continues to dominate the province. By the weekend the weather pattern will shift as the high moves to the southeast, allowing several weak Pacific frontal systems to make their way to the coast. A stronger system should hit the coastal regions by Sunday, moving into the Interior Monday bringing cloudy skies, snow and strong winds at upper elevations.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, explosives control triggered a size 2 wind slab. With forecast strong winds over the weekend wind slab problems may increase and be triggered by light loads (skiers/ sledders). Loose dry sluffing from steeper terrain may push you off your line, so watch and avoid terrain traps below.

Snowpack Summary

Recent wind has formed wind slabs on a variety of aspects in the alpine. The cold temperatures and clear skies are developing facets near the surface. There may be a layer of surface hoar buried 20-30cm deep in sheltered areas. Alpine snow depths are around 120-170 cm, and the widespread mid-november crust is buried down around 70-90 cm. Snowpack and crust depths increase as you move west toward the Selkirk Range. It sounds like there is a bit less snow on the ground in the south of the region, but we have not had many observations at this time. If you dig down to the crust, watch for facets developing above and below. This may provide a hard surface with a weak sliding layer in the future.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are reported to exist at treeline and in the alpine. Watch for conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2