Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Purcells.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Saturday: Clear skies / light to moderate southwest winds / freezing level at 2000m Sunday: Light precipitation / strong southwesterly winds / freezing level at about 2800m Monday: light precipitation / strong southwest winds / freezing level at about 2800m
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday, a size 2.5 natural cornice fall was reported. A smaller cornice fall triggered a size 2 wind-loaded slab on the same day. Wet sluffing to size 2 was also reported on solar aspects. I expect continued wind slab reactivity in the wake of Thursday night's storm with a transition to increased wet avalanche activity with warm temperatures forecast for the weekend.
Snowpack Summary
On Thursday night, light to locally heavy amounts of snow fell forming wind slabs that overlie a variety of surfaces that include: well settled powder, melt-freeze crusts and wet grains. At lower elevations, rain has continued to penetrate and weaken the isothermal snowpack. Deeper in the snowpack there are layers that may not be reactive with cooler temperatures, but should be on your radar as spring brings more prolonged periods of warm weather. These layers include near surface crusts, the early-February surface hoar (about 100-170cm down) and basal facets. Cornices in region are also large and will become weak with warm temperatures.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 5
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 4
Deep Persistent Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 3 - 7