Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 3rd, 2024 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada shorton, Avalanche Canada

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Triggering large avalanches is possible in steep rocky alpine terrain.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported since a few small wet loose avalanches occurred on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack consists of crusts, settled powder, unconsolidated facets, and old wind slabs. Beneath lies a thin and complex snowpack with two notable layers:

  • A layer of surface hoar buried 30 to 60 cm deep has been concerning in areas where it is not covered by a thick crust.

  • Weak basal facets near the bottom of the snowpack, especially in alpine terrain.

While these layers have been a concern for several weeks, they are becoming less likely to trigger under the current conditions.

Snowpack depths at treeline average 50 to 120 cm with significant variability across the region.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with trace amounts of snowfall, alpine wind southwest 20 km/h, treeline temperature -8 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with 1 to 2 cm of snow in the afternoon, alpine wind southwest 30 km/h, treeline temperature -6 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with 1 to 5 cm overnight then partly cloudy in the afternoon, alpine wind west 40 km/h, treeline temperature -8 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow in the eastern Purcells and 5 to 15 cm in the western Purcells, alpine wind southwest 30 to 50 km/h, treeline temperature -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use caution on large alpine slopes, especially around thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilities.
  • Be especially cautious near rock outcroppings, on steep convexities and anywhere the snowpack feels thinner than average.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs

A layer of weak facets near the ground may be reactive to human triggering, especially in shallow rocky alpine terrain where it is not covered by a thick crust.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

A layer of surface hoar down 30 to 60 cm may be possible to trigger on steep open slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Valid until: Jan 4th, 2024 4:00PM

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