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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 19th, 2016–Mar 20th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

There are several complex avalanche problems  that very with aspect and elevation. Be aware of changing hazards as you move through terrain.

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud today with freezing levels reaching 1800m.  Alpine temperature high of -1, although expect warmer temps on solar aspects if the sun shines through.  Winds remain light form the south.  Freezing levels continue to rise this weekend, peaking at 2700m on Sunday with light rain.

Snowpack Summary

Expect a surface crust on solar aspects. 30 to 50 cm of settling storm snow remains unconsolidated in shaded areas and sits over a crust on solar aspects.  Weak layers from February are down 70-120cm and are of most concern on solar aspects. Touchy winds slabs and deep loading exist on lee features in the alpine. Cornices are large and touchy.

Avalanche Summary

We received reports of several natural avalanches in the Rogers Pass backcountry.  Avalanches were triggered on solar aspects and ranged from loose point releases to storm slab releases. 

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Occurrences of cornice failures triggering persistent weak layers are on the rise.  Daytime warming and solar radiation increase the sensitivity of this avalanche problem. Avoid slopes (and run-out zones) that are subject to overhead hazard.
Even small cornice falls may trigger larger avalanches.Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on ridges.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Buried crusts are creating persistent instabilities on solar aspects.  Storm snow sits on a crust down 30-50cm. February crust is down 80-120cm and still has surface hoar crystals on top in some places. Locate and test these layers before committing.
Minimize exposure to steep, planer south facing Alpine slopesChoose well supported terrain without convexities.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Wet

Intense spring sun coupled with rising freezing levels can trigger loose wet avalanches with the potential to run far. This is a classic "step-down" scenario where a small releases could trigger storm slabs and buried persistent weak layers.
Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3