Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 24th, 2014–Jan 25th, 2014

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

A strong inversion is developing, which may not be obvious when you are trapped below the valley cloud in the cold air. Keep in mind that solar aspects are heating up above you.

Weather Forecast

A strong temperature inversion, with high solar radiation and alpine temps rising above 0 (potentially to +8 'C !), is forecast through Sunday. Valley cloud and cooler temps are expected at lower elevations.

Snowpack Summary

~5cm has buried, and will help preserve, a new surface hoar layer ("Jan 22"). This layer will be one to watch as it gets buried deeper. It sits on a sun crust on steep solar aspects and windslabs above treeline. The mid-pack is well settled. The Nov surface hoar, down 180cm, has spotty distribution. The base is weaker than the rest of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Size 1.0 sluffs and soft slabs have been skier triggered from steeper (>35 degree) slopes running on the Jan 22 surface hoar. Along the highway, a few slabs to size 2 continue to be observed daily from steep terrain on all aspects. Small, loose solar triggered avalanches have also been observed.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

A little bit of new snow has buried a large surface hoar layer. This sits on a smooth bed surface; windslabs or suncrusts. This is likely to be triggerable on steep terrain. In addition, loose avalanches are expected to be triggered by strong solar.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

Be aware of cornices looming overhead. Warm temps and strong solar radiation are expected in the alpine and will likely cause some cornices to come crashing down.

Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The November persistent weak layer will likely need a large load to trigger it, like a cornice. This is the classic low probability-high consequence problem. It's patchy distribution makes it hard to forecast, but if it wakes up watch out!

Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 3 - 4