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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 19th, 2015–Feb 20th, 2015
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Stevens Pass.

A low avalanche danger is expected in all the elevation bands west of the crest on Friday. But re-evaluate if there is more than a few inches of snow in the near and above treeline in the Stevens to Snoqualmie area.

Detailed Forecast

A weak short wave in a weak west flow is moving over the Northwest Thursday and Thursday night. This should cause increasing light showers west of the crest with lower snow levels. Another weak short wave in a northwest flow will move over the Northwest on Friday. This should maintain some light showers mainly west of the crest on Friday.

The light amounts of rain or snow Thursday to Friday should not significantly change snow conditions in most areas west of the crest.

A bit of a difference is that the WRF model shows some weak convergence Thursday night. So up to a few inches of snow seems possible Thursday night from Stevens to Snoqualmie in the near and above treeline. Winds should stay pretty light with a slight cooling trend and new storm slab seems too unlikely to list it as a problem in the Stevens to Snoqualmie area.

Note that if there is more wind or more than a few inches of in the Stevens to Snoqualmie area that would increase the chance of new wind or storm slab. So as always you will need to watch for differences from forecast conditions - in this case from the Stevens to Snoqualmie area.

As a result of the overall low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.

Snowpack Discussion

A benign weather pattern with mild temperatures has been seen in the Olympics and Cascades for about the past 10 days.

There has been a lot of consolidation and melting and freezing of surface layers of the snow pack in all areas including west of the crest. There were some reports of small loose wet avalanches on steep solar slopes a few days ago. But there have been no reports of avalanches more recently mainly just some reports of spring-like corn skiing at times.

Pro-observer Dallas Glass was at Paradise on Wednesday and reported some shallow softening on solar slopes, MF clusters throughout the snowpack and no instability.

Reports this morning west of the crest indicate strong thick surface crusts. Overall the mid and lower snowpack west of the crest should consist of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.

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