Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
If travelling into the above treeline elevation band Wednesday, watch for lingering wind slab on lee aspects and loose wet avalanches on solar aspects.
Detailed Forecast
Freezing levels on Wednesday should continue the gradual rising trend that began on Tuesday. Increasing high and mid clouds should be seen throughout the day.Â
Despite warming temperatures, there likely isn't enough snow on southerly aspects near and below treeline for significant wet loose danger.
In the difficult to access above treeline elevation band of the Olympics, it is plausible that there may be some touchy wind slab on lee aspects or enough snow for loose wet avalanches on southerly aspects. Â
As a general backcountry travel safety note, tread carefully at lower elevations and on wind scoured aspects where terrain hazards (exposed rocks, trees, streams, etc.) are present.Â
Snowpack Discussion
Strong southwest flow carried a wet front across the Olympics Saturday night. This front tapped subtropical moisture such that snow levels rose well above the Hurricane Ridge level Saturday night before a slow cooling trend set in Sunday. Two inches of water over 48 hours ending 4 am Monday only produced about a 7 to 8 inch bump in snowdepths at the NWAC Hurricane Ridge station and the Waterhole NRCS Snotel.Â
NWAC observer Tyler Reid was at Hurricane on Friday. He painted a somewhat dismal picture with shallow or little snow on most slopes. Katy Reid reported only marginally better conditions on Sunday afternoon with the new snowfall. Many southerly and windward slopes do not have enough snow cover for a significant avalanche threat. Â
Check out Sunday's video from Katy R. on our YouTube Channel.Â
Below the most recent storm snow, the rest of the snowpack should consist of melt-freeze grains and crusts from warm stretches this winter.Â
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Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1 - 1