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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 20th, 2011–Dec 21st, 2011
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Mainly sunny, with freezing levels in valley bottoms and moderate northwesterly winds. Thursday: Increasing clouds with a chance of flurries in the evening. Freezing levels rising as high as 1500m, and moderate southerly winds. Friday: 5-10cm of snow, with freezing levels around 1200m, and moderate southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Fresh wind slabs and cornices are sensitive to human-triggers, but the ensuing avalanches are generally small.

Snowpack Summary

In alpine and exposed treeline areas fresh wind slabs are bonding poorly a variable but predominately crusty snow surface from last weekend's warm, wet, and windy weather. Buried surface hoar persists 10 or so centimetres below this crust on sheltered treeline slopes and below in the Duffy Lake area. Recent compression tests on a northerly aspect at 1750m produced easy sudden results where it was found down 20cm as large as 15mm. Check out the Forecaster's Blog link below for a discussion on incremental loading of potential persistent weak layers. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Fresh wind slabs are lurking below ridgecrests, behind terrain features and in cross-loaded gullies.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3