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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 18th, 2015–Mar 19th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Forecast snowfall amounts are highly uncertain. If more than 20cm falls in your area, the Avalanche Danger may be High.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

A pacific storm will intensify on Wednesday night bringing snowfall to the region for Thursday and Friday. A clearing trend is forecast for Saturday. Up to 25cm of snow is forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday. Around 5cm of snow is expected on Friday. Only light flurries are forecast for Saturday. Ridgetop winds should remain strong to extreme from the southwest. Freezing levels are expected to hover between 1200m and 1500m with Friday being the warmest day.

Avalanche Summary

A skier recently triggered a size 1 wind slab in the alpine. Explosives control on Sunday triggered several very large avalanches near Stewart, failing at ground or on a deeply buried crust. New snow and wind on Wednesday night and Thursday is expected to promote a new round of storm slab activity.

Snowpack Summary

Around 1 m of recent storm snow was redistributed by strong and variable winds, creating widespread wind slabs. Operators now report reasonable settlement and bonding within the storm snow. Older buried surfaces include wind slabs, hard crusts, surface hoar, and/or surface facets. With more snow and wind forecast for Thursday, new storm slabs are expected to form. The mid-pack is generally well-settled and strong. At the base of the snowpack, weak facets may be found, particularly on shallow alpine slopes in the north of the region. Cornices are large and potentially fragile. Below treeline, the snow appears to be in a spring melt-freeze cycle.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow and wind is expected to form touchy new storm slabs. Watch for increased reactivity in wind-exposed terrain.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3