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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 29th, 2016–Mar 1st, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Strong winds will probably make the alpine an unpleasant place to be on Tuesday. Watch out for overhead exposure if you end up hiding out at treeline. Natural avalanches will become increasingly likely through the day.

Confidence

High - Due to the number and quality of field observations on Monday

Weather Forecast

A necessary reset is on its way, we're entering a prolonged period of cold, wet storm systems. TUESDAY: light snow overnight becoming heavy through the day with accumulations of up 30 cm expected, moderate to strong southerly winds 1500m freezing level. WEDNESDAY: heavy snow continues overnight with another 10-20cm expected before the snow stops in the morning, light southwesterly winds, 1500m freezing level. THURSDAY light to moderate snow with moderate southwest winds, 1500m freezing level.

Avalanche Summary

Isolated artificially and naturally triggered storm slab, wind slab and cornice avalanches continue to be reported. Cornices are large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person. A prolonged natural avalanche cycle is expected on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Forecast heavy snow and strong winds will continue to formed fresh slabs in lee features and steep terrain in the alpine and at treeline. The upper snowpack sits above a widespread crust that was reported on all aspects and elevations before the weekend. Isolated pockets of surface hoar were reported in high north facing terrain that stayed cool prior to the storm. The mid-pack is generally well settled. A layer of surface hoar buried in early January can now be found down 1-2 m. In most places it is thought to be capped by a thick widespread crust, however, it has produced some recent isolated hard sudden planar failures in snow pit test from shallow snowpack areas in the north of the region.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy snowfall and strong wind will trigger a natural avalanche cycle. Human triggered avalanche will become increasing likely on steep unsupported slopes or in wind loaded features through the day.
Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by windloading may reach run out zones.>Avoid steep, open slopes.>Be careful with wind loaded pockets >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3