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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2015–Jan 16th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Incoming precipitation with strong S-SW winds will create wind-slabs at treeline and above on existing crusts. Surface hoar has formed in protected locations. Careful terrain evaluation will be important during this next storm cycle

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

A fast moving cold front moves inland today bringing strong southwest winds and precipitation to the South Coast Inland area. 10 to 20cm of snow forecast for upper elevations. Saturday there will be a small break in the weather with another 10 to 20cm on Sunday. Freezing levels will fluctuate between 800 to 1500 metres as the storm moves through.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported.

Snowpack Summary

New storm snow being redistributed by strong winds on top of the crust will be the situation to watch. There are a variety of layers previously mentioned in snowpack discussions, but unless there is an extreme weather event, they are likely to remain out of the picture  for the time being. Surface hoar development has been reported on North aspects up to ridge tops. One operator reported that the Jan. 4th surface hoar layer may now be buried by as much as 20 to 40 cm.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow being redistributed by strong winds will create a serious hazard at treeline and above.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

This persistent slab problem may be out of the picture soon, but might be triggered on high north aspects where the recent crust did not develop.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of thin areas where human-triggering may be possible and may propagate to deeper instabilities.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 5