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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 7th, 2015–Dec 8th, 2015
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Rising freezing levels, heavy precipitation, strong winds, and a layer or recently buried surface hoar are a recipe for High avalanche danger!

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

A series of powerful storms is going to wallop the coast over the coming days bringing heavy precipitation and strong winds.  Tuesday could see snowfall accumulations of between 25 and 40cm. with another 30cm expected by Friday.  Winds will be strong from the SW and freezing levels should stay below 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports of natural, rider and remotely triggered avalanches from the mountains around Shames suggest that the load on a layer of recently buried surface hoar has reached critical levels.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 70 cm of new storm snow may now overlie a variety of old surfaces including crusts, facets and surface hoar.  The distribution of surface hoar is definitely my biggest knowledge gap, although it has been reported well into the alpine in the Bear Pass.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy snowfall will likely result in a continued and widespread avalanche cycle.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>It is a good time to stay within the boundaries of a ski resort.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 6