Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 6th, 2012 9:07AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet, Cornices and Wind Slabs.

pgoddard, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Coastal.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Mainly sunny with no precipitation. Moderate outflow (easterly to northerly, low elevation) winds easing. Freezing level around 700m during the day and valley floor at night. Warm alpine temperatures.Wednesday: Light precipitation as a weak system approaches the coast late in the day. Light southerly winds. Freezing level rising to around 1000m. Thursday: Moderate precipitation associated with a frontal band is forecast, with some uncertainty about amounts and timing. Light to moderate south-west winds. Freezing level rising to around 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

A few cornice falls have been observed over the past couple of days. Wind loading led to a localized avalanche cycle near Stewart on Sunday. Several solar-triggered avalanches have been observed on sunny slopes during the heat of the day.

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds from the east and south-east have created new slabs at treeline and above. Temperatures have been unseasonably warm, leading to moist or wet weak surface snow conditions. Where a re-freeze has occurred, a crust now exists. Recent storm snow appears to be well settled. A facet layer buried on Jan 20th still exhibits hard, sudden planar results in isolated snowpack tests. It's about 120-150cm deep in the snowpack. Cornices will be weakest during the heat of the day and have the potential to act as a trigger for deep avalanches on the slope below.

Problems

Loose Wet

Direct sun and warming can trigger loose avalanches, especially in steep south-facing terrain. It might be hotter at alpine elevations than in the valley, so be aware of what's cooking above you.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

3 - 7

Cornices

Large cornices are looming over some slopes and could act as a trigger for avalanches if they collapse.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

3 - 7

Wind Slabs

Recent winds have created new wind slabs behind ridges and terrain breaks.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Feb 7th, 2012 3:00AM