Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 19th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.
rbuhler,
Avalanche Canada
The storm is expected to produce rain at most elevations and loose wet avalanches are possible. At the highest elevations that receive mostly snowfall, new storm slabs and natural avalanche activity should be expected.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.
Weather Forecast
A storm system impacts to the coast Wednesday night and Thursday before a warm ridge of high pressure establishes on Friday.Â
Wednesday Night: Precipitation 20-30 mm, wind becoming strong SW, freezing levels reaching near 1800 m.Â
Thursday: Precipitation 10-15 mm, strong SW wind, freezing levels 1800 m dropping to around 1000 m through the day.
Friday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate to strong NW wind, freezing levels climbing to around 3000 m with an inversion.Â
Saturday: Mainly sunny, moderate to strong NW wind, freezing levels around 3200 m with an inversion.Â
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche activity have been reported over the last few days.
If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to around 2100 m and a widespread crust is now expected where the snow surface has refrozen. Below this, snow is moist down 25-50 cm where several previous crusts sit that are currently breaking down.Â
Around 150 to 200 cm deep, sugary faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust, that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.
Terrain and Travel
- Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
Problems
Storm Slabs
New storm slabs are expected to form at the highest elevations on Thursday where the storm produces mainly storm snow.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Another rain event is not expected to have much of an impact on the lower elevation snowpack which has already been rain-soaked but wet loose avalanches are possible on very steep slopes, especially around treeline where the surface crust may be less robust.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 20th, 2022 4:00PM
