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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 27th, 2013–Dec 28th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Cloudy with flurries or periods of snow developing later in the day 5-15 cm. The freezing level is near 500 m and winds are light from the NW switching to moderate W-SW. Sunday: Periods of snow, easing in the afternoon 10-20 cm. The freezing level should climb to around 1500 m and winds are moderate to strong from the W-SW. Monday: Periods of snow. The freezing level lowers to around 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Observations during the storm yesterday are very limited; however, there was one report of loud rumbling in the Shames backcountry. I would expect a fairly widespread and large natural avalanche cycle occurred. Natural avalanche activity should taper off heading into the weekend, but rider triggering remains a concern. Lower elevation explosive control on Thursday also produced wet avalanches up to Size 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Southern Sections: The Boxing Day blitz dumped another 50-80 cm of heavy snow, accompanied by strong southwest winds. Freezing levels peaked near 2000 m right along the coast and around 1400 m further inland towards Terrace. Recently buried weaknesses of surface hoar and/or facets are now well over 1 m deep and were likely flushed out or squashed by the heavy snowfall. Forecast cooling should help stabilize the snowpack and result in a surface crust forming below treeline. Northern Sections: Storm snow totals are closer to 30-40 cm. Fresh dense wind slabs are likely in exposed lee terrain and cross-loaded features. A recently buried surface hoar layer is now down around 50-60 cm and is likely primed for rider triggering. A facet/crust layer exists near the base of the snowpack, primarily on higher NW through E facing slopes. Triggering this layer may be unlikely, but if triggered the resulting avalanche would be very large and dangerous.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.