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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 12th, 2015–Feb 15th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

A few cm over the week and warm temperatures have improved travel conditions however the avalanche hazard will not drop until the temperatures do.

Weather Forecast

After a week freeze tonight, warm conditions with a freezing level around 2000m will persist through Saturday. Sun on Friday could weaken snow on solar slopes.  10mm of precip expected midday Saturday. We look forward to the first good freeze in a while on Saturday night followed by mainly dry weather into the start of the week.

Snowpack Summary

Above 2000m 5 to 10cm and thin windslabs cap the 50 to 80 cm slab above the Jan 31 crust. Rain has created surface crusts below 2000m and the entire snowpack remains moist with warm temps allowing poor recovery below 1900m. The Dec 13 layer down about 1m average is still a concern in high shaded terrain where there are no strong crusts above it.

Avalanche Summary

Cornice fall triggered thin windslabs that were enough of a load to pull a 100m wide slab out of the hanging face above Wall lake sometime in the last 36 hrs. This slab was 60 to 100cm deep and likely ran on the Jan 31 interface.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.