Watch for periods of solar heating to cause an increase in the hazard beyond the posted Danger Ratings.
Weather Forecast
No precip is expected for the period. Winds will slowly increase on Wed and again for Thurs to SW 30 G 70. Good overnight recoveries but temperatures will also increase with freezing levels reaching near 2000m Wed and Thurs. The sun will be the major factor for this period: with only partly cloudy skies forecast it will exert significant heating.
Snowpack Summary
Surface Crusts below 1500m and to ridgelines on solar aspects. 25 to 40 cm now over the 0325 interface that behaves as a soft slab. The 0314 crust is found to ridgelines on S aspects and the 0310 rain crust goes to about treeline on shaded aspects. The Feb facet layer is generally very deep or under a crust in all but thin, high elevation areas.
Avalanche Summary
We are into a predictable cycle of daily heating that creates loose wet avalanches on solar aspects. The size of these events will vary with the significance of the heating and the depth of the crust that gets broken down by that heating. The slabs to size 2 that have been seen indicate a reactive slab exists in open areas on shaded aspects.
Confidence
Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.