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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 4th, 2019–Feb 5th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

Natural avalanche activity has slowed down, but human triggered avalanches remain likely, especially in wind loaded areas and at lower elevations where a buried surface hoar layer has produced avalanches recently.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT - Clear with cloudy periods / northeast winds 10-20 km/h / alpine low temperature near -19TUESDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / northwest winds 10-15 km/h / alpine high temperature near -15WEDNESDAY - Mainly sunny / west winds 15-25 km/h / alpine high temperature near -13THURSDAY - Cloudy with flurries, 5 cm / southwest winds, 15-35 km/h / alpine high temperature near -12

Avalanche Summary

Observations were limited due to high winds and poor visibility, but no new avalanches were reported on Sunday. Recent test results suggest that the new snow is not bonding well to a persistent weak layer that was buried in mid January.Widespread avalanche activity was reported on Saturday. Natural avalanches to size 3 and human triggered avalanches to size 2 were reported. Many of these failed on mid January persistent weak layer. This layer was the most reactive at treeline and below.There is a great MIN report here detailing the reactivity of the mid January layer in Allen creek on Saturday.Field observations were limited on Friday, but it is likely that a natural avalanche cycle was occurring throughout the day. There were reports of a few human triggered avalanches to size 2 occurring at treeline and below on Friday. Some of these were remote triggered (triggered from a distance), and failed on the in mid January layer.There are two great MIN reports that outline how reactive the mid January layer was on Friday. They can be found here and here.

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of recent new snow is sitting on surface hoar (feathery crystals), facets (sugary snow) and a crust on sun-exposed slopes. In many areas, recent strong winds have redistributed the new snow and formed wind slabs on all aspects due to shifting wind directions.50-80 cm of snow now sits on a persistent weak layer that was buried in mid January. This layer consists of surface hoar and a crust on sun-exposed slopes. It is most prominent at treeline and below, and was very reactive during the recent storm.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.