10-15cm of snow is forecast this weekend. Stay vigilant and out of the bigger terrain. The basal layers are triggerable from thin weak snowpack areas.
Confidence
Moderate - Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday
Weather Forecast
10-15cm of snow is forecast to fall over the next 24hrs. Temps will remain around -5C and winds will continue to be moderate out of the SW.
Avalanche Summary
No new natural or skier triggered avalanches
Snowpack Summary
A light dusting of 3-4cm of snow now covers the Jan 17th surface hoar found up to 2100m and sun crusts on steep south and west aspects up to 2600m. This new layer will be something to pay attention to as we move through winter. Other wise the snowpack is pretty non-changing. The upper snowpack has settled with isolated windslabs in alpine areas but the main concern is still the weak facetted base that is widespread throughout the region at all elevations. Concern for triggering this base should be forefront in your mind in shallow or variable snowpack areas. We are below average snowpack depth for this time of year and the 6 day wind warning earlier in December has scoured many areas that haven't recovered from the severe scouring.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.