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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 24th, 2019–Jan 25th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Rising temperatures could mean that avalanche hazard increases throughout the day. Choose more conservative terrain if significant warming is experienced, especially at lower elevations where a surface hoar layer could catch people by surprise.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy / west winds, 10-20 km/h / alpine low temperature near -5 / freezing level 700 m / alpine temperature inversionFRIDAY - Mainly cloudy / northwest winds, 10-20 km/h / alpine high temperature near 0 / freezing level 1500 m / alpine temperature inversionSATURDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods / west winds, 20-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near +5 / freezing level 3000 m SUNDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / northwest winds, 40-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near +2 / freezing level 2000 m / possible alpine temperature inversion

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday several natural and human triggered storm slab avalanches to size 2.5 were reported on north and east aspects in all elevation bands. There are two South Coast Inland MIN reports from Wednesday that outline some of this avalanche activity as well as some snowpack tests. (Steep Creek) (Reactive Surface Hoar)A few natural and human triggered avalanches to size 1.5 were reported in the region on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of recent storm snow is likely sitting on a sun crust on south facing slopes, a melt freeze crust below approximately 1700 m on all aspects, and surface hoar (feathery crystals) in areas sheltered from the wind at all elevations. The recent snow may not bond well to these weak layers. In some areas, another layer of surface hoar that was buried near the end of December is down approximately 60 to 120 cm in sheltered areas around treeline elevations. There have been no recent reports of avalanches on this layer, but a large trigger such as cornice fall may still have the potential to trigger avalanches on this layer.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.