Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Blowing and drifting snow has kept the avalanche danger at CONSIDERABLE on steep, mid to upper elevation terrain that faces NW through E and human triggered soft slab avalanches, up to 2' deep failing on a buried persistent weak layer are likely in these areas.

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on low elevation, northerly facing slopes, and on W and SE aspects where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.

Coverage remains quite thin. Beware of lingering obstacles such as rocks, stumps and deadfall just below the surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    And so it begins. Snow that has been sitting around on the ground since October has become weak and faceted, and a dense, soft slab up to 2' thick is sitting on top. This condition exists on slopes facing NW through E and will likely pose a persistent weak layer problem for the foreseeable future. Southerly winds throughout the week have continued to drift additional snow on to these aspects thereby increasing the load on this fragile snowpack structure. Human triggered avalanches remain likely in these areas.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Strong southerly winds over the past several days have continued to blow and drift snow on to northerly aspects where weak, sugary snow from October sits underneath. Last night's few inches of new snow has also blown into shallow, fresh drifts. This incremental wind loading has slowly been adding additional stress to pre-existing slabs that are sitting on top of the October, persistent weak layer. The strategy for now remains simple - avoid steep slopes facing NW through E, as well as any area where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.

Special Announcement

Road Conditions: Grand County will be up plowing this morning and the gate will be closed while they are working.

Grooming: Expect to find new and drifted snow on the trails today.

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I was recently interviewed by Peggy Hodgkins for Science Moab. You can listen to the podcast: The Art of Avalanche Forecasting here.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 4" 72 Hour Snow 4" Base Depth in Gold Basin 24" Wind SW 25-30 G35 Temp 15F

This storm was all huff and puff and not much fluff for us I'm afraid. Overnight southerly winds cranked up into the 30's and 40's with the highest gusts in the low 60's. Snowfall began around 2:00 a.m and was pretty much done by 5:00 a.m. We may pick up another inch or two this morning but it's pretty much over. Gusty, ridge top SW winds will continue to blow in the 25 -35 mph range as a cold front moves through this morning before shifting to to more westerly. High temps will be in the low 20's and skies should clear by afternoon. Another weaker system, primarily affecting points north will slide though on Thursday with sunny, dry, and cold conditions in store for the weekend.

I'm afraid wind and not new snow has been the primary factor affecting the snowpack over the past several days. Reports from the backcountry this week indicate continued dangerous conditions from blowing and drifting snow and poor snow pack structure and collapsing and whumphing are still being observed. It's early season and until I get a clearer picture of what's going on out there the snowpack will be considered guilty until proven innocent.

Winds have scoured all exposed surfaces while depositing fresh drifts onto leeward slopes. Note the plumes of blowing snow on the high ridge tops in the background. Photo courtesy of Charlie Ramser.

Weather Links

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

Storm Totals in Gold Basin

Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

NWS Weather Forecast

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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