Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, mid and upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E and human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas.

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on low elevation northerly aspects and on mid and upper elevation slopes facing W and SE where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.

Most S-SW facing terrain has generally LOW danger.

It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Blowing and drifting snow has formed new wind slabs on leeward slopes that face primarily NW through E, with some cross-loading possible on W and SE facing slopes. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those that face the north side of the compass.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    On slopes facing NW through E, fresh deposits of wind drifted snow have formed over top of a dense slab, 2'-3' thick, that exists on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets. Over the past two weeks, these slabs have grown increasingly stubborn to release but to be sure, any avalanche triggered on this weak, faceted layer would be deep and dangerous. With more wind drifted snow continuing to add stress to this persistent weak layer, steep slopes facing NW through E are best avoided.

Special Announcement

Road Conditions: Expect to find a few inches of new snow with areas of drifting.

Grooming: Matt from LUNA groomed all trails yesterday. Follow @luna_moab on Instagram.

Recent Activity

Dave Garcia ran across this old but previously unreported avalanche in Coyote Chute. Like all the other slides this season, it was about 2.5" deep and failed on the October facets. Here is the current avalanche list.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 1" 72 Hour Snow 6" Base Depth in Gold Basin 26" Wind SW 25-30 G40 Temp 17F

Current Weather Observations

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

Storm Totals in Gold Basin

Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

NWS Weather Forecast

A long wave trough with an "exceptionally strong jet" remains parked over the West, but as the snow continues to pile up in the San Juans, the story for us continues to be mainly about the wind. Today look for cloudy skies, ridge top SW winds in the 20-30 mph range, high temps in the upper teens, and a chance for developing snow showers by afternoon. Sound familiar? A better chance for snow develops overnight as the next shortwave moves through the area but it seems to be another repeat performance of the last two. 3"-5" are possible with snow showers lingering through tomorow. The models are still showing a storm with a decent shot at some accumulating moisture by the end of the year.

Snowpack

5" of dense new snow accompanied by moderate to strong SW winds plastered the mountains on Friday night, with snow even sticking to southerly aspects. Dave Garcia was up and reported that the new snow had a "styrofoam" feel that was "slightly upside down and grabby (but also) supportable, surfy, and fun." He also reported fresh wind drifts on northerly aspects, as well as observing this old, but previously unreported avalanche in Coyote Chute. Read his full observation here. On terrain facing NW through E an older, dense slab, 2'-3' thick exists over weak, October facets. The recent snow does not appear to have affected this buried persistent weak layer, but it is possible that a triggered wind slab could result in a deeper and much more dangerous avalanche. With continued strong winds and chance of snow in the forecast, continue to avoid steep, northerly aspects, especially where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.

Overall snow cover remains quite thin and rocks, stumps, and deadfall continue to pose hazards.

5" of dense snow has plastered the mountains even sticking to southerly aspects in spite of the winds. Note the heavy riming on the trees. Dave Garcia photo.

General Announcements

Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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