Confidence
Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure is expected to move into the region overnight. Northwest winds are expected to continue to be gusty and strong in the alpine and at treeline on Thursday. Some moisture that will remain in the area is expected to cause periods of moderate precipitation alternating with periods of thin cloud. Continued high pressure is forecast for Friday morning, before a low pressure system moves into the region from the Pacific in the afternoon. Southwest wind and moderate precipitation is forecast to begin in the late afternoon or early evening. Snow and wind should continue overnight and into Saturday. The freezing level is expected to drop down to near valley bottoms on Wednesday night, and then rise to about 1000 metres on Thursday.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanches are becoming more frequent and larger. Remotely triggered avalanches continue to be reported. One avalanche was reported as being triggered from 70 metres away on terrain that was only about 20 degrees of slope.
Snowpack Summary
Strong gusty wind has transported snow into a thick slab in the alpine and at treeline. The upper snowpack structure is very complex. There are buried layers of surface hoar, buried melt-freeze crusts, and some buried crusts with facets. These weak sliding layers are buried anywhere from 30 - 70 cm by several different storm layers. There are some shears in the storm layers on decomposed and fragmented snow crystals. As the snow above the surface hoar layers settles into a cohesive slab, we are seeing easier and more sudden shears that are a bit deeper. The surface hoar is more likely to produce wider propagations, and lower angle fractures in areas where it is associated with a crust. The crust has been reported to be 2-3 cm thick in some areas. The mid-pack is generally well settled. Basal facets have not been reactive, but operators continue to monitor this layer in tests. Triggering this deep persistent weak layer is unlikely, but shallow snowpack areas or shallow weak areas adjacent to deeper wind loaded slopes are the most suspect locations.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.