Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

AM Update: Increased the Near Treeline Band to Moderate because of stronger winds.

Increasing winds could build fresh shallow slabs in the mountains today. With all the low-density snow, sluffing can also occur on very steep slopes. Look for signs of instability such as shooting cracks or whumphing collapses, and consider the consequences before entering complex terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A bump in westerly winds may begin to drift the low-density snow into shallow and reactive slabs on exposed slopes during the day. Look for signs of wind transported snow such as blowing snow, sharp drifts, small cornices, and wind rippled snow. If you observe any of these, steer around those areas on steep slopes. Loose avalanches, otherwise known as 'sluffs' may pose a threat in very steep terrain. Plan your ride so that you manage your sluff in steeper terrain and remember to never ride on top of other people in this environment. Always check how the snow is reacting by using small, inconsequential test slopes before entering larger slopes.

    Deeper and more surprising avalanches are unlikely, but not impossible. If venturing up high, you might consider still avoiding complex and unsupported terrain because of this. We have very limited information on the upper elevation snowpack, but we do know that a deeply buried crust layer has created avalanches in the neighboring East North zone and perhaps at Snoqualmie (see photo below). Listen for whumphing collapses as you travel, they're the snowpack's way of telling you that a deeper layer is unstable. You can dig down and use snowpack tests to check how snow is bonding to the crusts from late November and early December.

    Drifts covering the skin track a few hours later are a sign that wind is drifting snow. Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

The East Central could pick up another couple inches overnight on Wednesday, and an upslope storm Monday evening brought 6-8 inches of snow to the area. On Tuesday I found evidence of a few small loose dry avalanches that likely ran during the burst of heavier snowfall. Since December 8th significant new snow has fallen on various surfaces, including rain crusts, soft snow, or firmer recently wind deposited snow. The snowpack depth and structure vary significantly from west to east. Near the Cascade Crest, you may find areas with up to 5 feet of snow on the ground, while further east near Mission Ridge the snowpack may be only 1-2ft deep. 

A pair of crusts from late November and December 8th may be found at higher elevations of the zone near the crest. These crusts may harbor weaker snow above them and are a source of uncertainty at this point in the season.

On Tuesday, an observer reported weak, faceted grains at the base of a shallow snowpack at Mission Ridge. These 'basal facets' will be worth considering with any thickly drifted wind slabs, and as we head further into the winter.

In many areas, the snowpack is still very shallow. If you're recreating on snow be aware of hidden logs, sharp rocks, and open streams.

Regions covered